Has Sifuna Inherited Raila’s Mantle?

On Oct. 4, Sifuna took over The Equitable Party as its leader and 2027 presidential candidate, just 11 days before Kenya marks one year since Raila Odinga died.

Raila, the former prime minister who anchored Kenya’s opposition for decades, died in Kerala, India, on Oct. 15, 2025, at age 80.

His Orange Democratic Movement has spent the year since arguing over his political wishes. ODM’s current leaders, led by his elder brother Sen. Oburu Oginga, have kept the party within President William Ruto’s broad-based government and even vowed not to field a presidential candidate in the upcoming elections. 

Sifuna, ODM’s secretary general since 2018, insisted the party should return to full opposition. That stance cost him his post. ODM’s National Executive Committee removed him in February over what it called indiscipline, then repeated the decision in June after a tribunal fight. In a July 9 letter, the Registrar of Political Parties confirmed the change in the party’s records.

Even Raila’s Anniversary Now Runs on Two Separate Tracks

ODM has declared October “Mwezi wa Baba,” a month of rallies that includes an Oct. 9 gathering in Kakamega, in Sifuna’s Western Kenya backyard.

Raila’s family is running its own program, ending with a public memorial at Migwena Grounds in Bondo on Oct. 15 and the unveiling of a new mausoleum. Kisumu Woman Rep. Ruth Odinga, Raila’s sister, has suggested that some party officials want to exploit the occasion.

Ruto ordered the mausoleum to be finished by Oct. 14, and it is expected to be at the Bondo memorial.

ODM Rebels Joined Sifuna on Stage but Mostly Kept Their Seats

Suba South MP Caroli Omondi, elected on an ODM ticket, presented Sifuna as the new party’s only flag bearer.

Omondi said, “This formation will be led by one presidential candidate,” naming Sifuna.

Vihiga Sen. Godfrey Osotsi, whom ODM removed as deputy party leader in March, made the boldest claim of the day. Speaking in Kiswahili, he said “branches county 35 ambao ilikuwa ya ODM” had moved to the new party, meaning former ODM branches in 35 counties. Osotsi also claimed that 600,000 people registered as members within two hours, a figure no independent outlet has verified.

Others on stage included Siaya Governor  James Orengo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Kitutu Chache South MP Antoney Kibagendi, all elected on ODM tickets in 2022. Trans Nzoia Gov. George Natembeya, Kakamega Sen. Boni Khalwale and Kisii Sen. Richard Onyonka also attended.

Attendance, however, is not the same as defection.

Under Article 103 of Kenya’s Constitution, a lawmaker who resigns from the party that sponsored them loses the seat. For now, most of Sifuna’s ODM-elected allies back him in public while staying on ODM’s books.

Opposition Allies Cheered, but Key Rivals Stayed Away

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua congratulated Sifuna and urged his supporters to run as aspirants on the new ticket.

“There will be no escape route for this regime!” Gachagua wrote.

DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa also congratulated Sifuna and said his party was ready to host Him.

Khalwale paired his praise with a warning.

“Edwin Sifuna, do not get excited. The hard part has now started,” he said.

Missing from the stage were Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i. Kalonzo’s camp recently rebranded Azimio as the Ukombozi Alliance after a fight with Sifuna’s team over the Ukombozi name. Days before the launch, Kalonzo’s allies were reported to want Sifuna as his running mate, not his rival.

Ruto’s Camp and ODM Loyalists Moved Quickly to Dismiss Him

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, an ODM loyalist, listed the absent opposition leaders and mocked those who came. Kaluma wrote that Orengo and Owino were “present with no votes.” He argued that Sifuna’s partners were setting him up to fail.

Oburu went further in April, telling Hot 96 that “Raila was fed up with Sifuna.” On the government side, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi has argued that building a national party within a year of the election is practically impossible.

Ruto himself called Sifuna an “extortionist” during a Coast tour, after Sifuna demanded the government’s agreement with Aliko Dangote on a planned Lamu refinery. Sifuna replied by citing Article 35 of the constitution, which guarantees citizens access to state information.

Polls Show the Fastest Rise in the Opposition, but Ruto Still Leads

Public support for Sifuna has grown faster than for any other opposition figure. A June TIFA poll tracked him rising from almost no measurable support in 2025 to 15% nationally.

Within ODM, 44% of supporters named him their preferred presidential candidate, the same poll found. In July, an Infotrak survey put Sifuna first among voters aged 18 to 26, at 20%, while Ruto led overall at 32%.

A newer Politrack Africa poll placed Sifuna at 19.6%, with Ruto still ahead. Supporters have also chipped in money through a mobile paybill, Sifuna told a crowd in Bungoma.

Sifuna Has Raila’s Voice but Not Yet Raila’s Machine

Has Sifuna inherited Raila’s mantle? Not yet, and not whole. He has taken on Raila’s role as the loudest voice against the sitting government. Part of Raila’s base now follows him too, especially younger voters and ODM members who never accepted the deal with Ruto.

Funyula MP Wilberforce Oundo said last month that “the spirit of Raila Odinga left the carcasses of the so-called ODM.”

Raila’s mantle, though, was more than a mood. It was a machine: a national brand, a disciplined Nyanza voting bloc and decades of skill at building coalitions with former rivals. ODM still holds the orange brand, the party structures and most of Nyanza’s elected leaders, including Homa Bay Gov. Gladys Wanga, Minority Leader Junet Mohamed and Kaluma.

TEP, by contrast, was registered in 2022 and drew little attention until this weekend. Raila’s family has endorsed no one, saying the anniversary belongs to the people, not any individual or institution.

History offers its own caution. Raila took up his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s mantle in the 1990s, yet he still needed alliances with old rivals to reach the edge of power. Sifuna has the message and a growing crowd, while Kalonzo still wants the top of the ticket. 

On Oct. 15, Kenyans will gather in Bondo to remember a man who spent his life building an opposition that could survive defeat. Whether Sifuna can build one that survives Raila is the real test, and no graveside will settle it.