Malema’s Gun Conviction Puts South Africa’s Opposition Politics on Edge

South Africa’s fiery opposition leader Julius Malema, a man who has built his political brand on defiance, was this week handed one of the most serious legal blows of his career. A regional court on Wednesday, October1, found him guilty of firing an assault rifle in public during a rally in 2018, a ruling that could determine whether he remains in parliament and, potentially, whether his radical movement retains its most potent voice.

Malema, the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), was convicted of multiple charges under South Africa’s Firearms Control Act: unlawful possession of a firearm, unlawful possession of ammunition, discharging a firearm in a built-up area, and reckless endangerment of the public. His long-time bodyguard, Adriaan Snyman, accused of supplying the weapon, was acquitted, according to Reuters.

Magistrate Twanet Olivier, who delivered the judgment after three days of proceedings, said the evidence left “no room for doubt” that the weapon was real, rejecting Malema’s defense that it had been a toy. A pre-sentencing report is expected on January 23, a date now looming over the future of the EFF leader’s parliamentary career.

If he receives a prison sentence of more than 12 months, South Africa’s constitution would automatically disqualify him from serving in the National Assembly, where he has been a member for over a decade.

The 2018 Rally That Sparked the Case

The case stems from a moment of theatrical bravado during the EFF’s fifth anniversary celebration in Mdantsane, Eastern Cape. In front of a packed stadium, Malema raised what appeared to be an automatic rifle and fired two shots into the air, drawing cheers from supporters and alarm from security officials.

That, for his followers, was quintessential Malema, a man unafraid to shock, to defy convention, to dramatize the EFF’s struggle against economic inequality and entrenched white privilege. However, for critics, it was reckless and dangerous, evidence of a leader who thrives on provocation without regard for consequence.

The incident sparked immediate calls for investigation, but it took years for the case to wind its way through the courts.

Malema’s Political Persona

At 43, Malema remains one of the most polarizing figures in South African politics. Once the head of the ANC Youth League, he was expelled from the ruling African National Congress in 2012 after repeated clashes with party elders. He went on to form the EFF, a radical leftist movement that has grown into the country’s second-largest opposition party.

Known for his red berets, fiery speeches, and uncompromising rhetoric on land expropriation without compensation, Malema has positioned himself as the voice of South Africa’s marginalized Black majority. He has railed against the enduring racial wealth gap three decades after the fall of apartheid, often casting himself as the scourge of the white establishment.

But his politics have frequently courted controversy. His refusal to stop singing the apartheid-era struggle song “Kill the Boer”, despite court challenges, has fueled accusations of hate speech and violent incitement. Far-right groups, particularly online, interpret the song as a call to target white farmers, though Malema insists it is symbolic and historic.

U.S. President Donald Trump early this year, during a meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, called for Malema’s arrest.

EFF’s Response and Political Fallout

In the hours after Wednesday’s verdict, the EFF lashed out, calling the trial a “witch hunt” designed to weaken its leader. “This proves that this was a witch hunt to target the president of the EFF and find him guilty no matter how irrational it may be,” the party said in a statement.

Malema himself has remained defiant, continuing to campaign across the country and framing the case as part of a broader effort by political and judicial elites to silence him.

But the verdict leaves the EFF facing a potentially existential question: can the movement survive without Malema at its helm in parliament? His charisma and combative style have made him synonymous with the party, and analysts warn that his removal from the political arena, even temporarily, could blunt the EFF’s momentum ahead of the next general election.